November 27, 2009

1 Comment

Harper’s Going To Copenhagen – But Are We Truly Following the US’ Efforts?

by Tzeporah Berman

We should acknowledge progress when it happens: Stephen Harper has bowed to the wishes of 76% of Canadians (!) and will be going to Copenhagen. This is a good thing – let’s not forget the ‘Nixon to China’ pathway to progress.

But one thing that’s clear from the coverage is that we need to do a better job of exposing the fallacy that Canada is “matching US efforts” or “harmonizing” with Obama and the U.S. administration.

Most of the Harper-to-Copenhagen coverage focused on Obama’s decision to go as being the decisive factor. And it is Canada’s official strategy to “match US efforts.”

But while anyone could make a pretty good case that Obama is trying to pivot his supertanker of a country into a clean energy future – almost no one would argue that Canada is really trying at all.

Just follow the money: the Obama administration is out-investing our federal government as much as 14-1 per capita on clean energy.

The one comparison that makes the match-the-Americans soundbite seem plausible is the proposed carbon cuts for 2020. [Canada 20% below 2006; US 17% below 2005]

This hides more than it reveals.

Any normal person glazes over once they start hearing “blah blah percent below blah blah date levels by blah blah date.” But journalists should be drilling into the numbers, so it’s disappointing that virtually no coverage points out that what Obama actually proposed to offer at Copenhagen continues in the next sentence:

In light of the President’s goal to reduce emissions 83% by 2050, the expected pathway set forth in this pending legislation would entail a 30% reduction below 2005 levels in 2025 and a 42% reduction below 2005 in 2030.

That’s a steep curve. You can argue that it’s not steep enough (science and self-preservation says we all should) or doesn’t start soon enough, but what you can’t dispute is that Canada is not remotely aiming to match that curve.

The carbon cap plan-that-we’ve been-planning-to-have doesn’t come close to meeting even the initial targets let alone that steeper curve.

The American carbon cap plan has already passed the House of Representatives and is working through the Senate.

And the carbon caps are only one of the elements of the US strategy – the one least under Obama’s control. The areas Obama’s executive branch does control have moved significantly in less than one year:

$100 billion in stimulus for low-carbon energy and clean-tech;

New vehicle efficiency standards and encouragement to states to set higher ones;

New appliance efficiency standards;

Doubling renewable energy;

EPA findings that CO2 needs regulation as pollutant;

Tax credits to get 1 million plug-in hybrinds on the road;

Funding and regs to jumpstart a 21^st century smart grid;

etc….

I don’t want to pretend that Obama and the American administration are doing enough to avoid runaway climate change. But they are approaching the edge of the possible in domestic politics. Emerging countries like China are showing movement not thinkable one year ago.

We shouldn’t let Canada get away with claiming that we’re matching US efforts.

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One Response so far...

1. Barry Saxifrage says:

   November 28, 2009 at 12:07 pm

   Translated to national 1990 levels — the internationally-shared starting line — both Harper’s and Obama’s latest targets = 3% decrease.

   So Canada and USA are, as they should be, racing towards the same 2020 finish line compared to 1990. Hard to imagine Canada having the clout to under-perform compared to USA. That’s a recipe for carbon tariffs and trade wars with our largest trading partner.

   What concerns me as a Canadian citizen is that while there is agreement to race towards the same finish line, our lack of effort so far has left us a much harder race ahead than even the Americans face.

   We have let ourselves get laps behind the USA. Americans have stopped running in the wrong direction. We haven’t. They have lowered total emissions significantly in last couple years (some estimates have it a 9% drop). But Canadian emissions are still growing fast. Who’s running shoes would you rather be in right now?

   Obama is pouring billions into transitioning USA economy from dirty to clean. Harper is spending just a fraction as much per citizen. Which citizens will be better prepared for the race?

   The Obama executive branch is now filled with experienced, motivated, knowledgeable, climate-concerned cabinet and department heads. Our leadership is filled with experienced, motivated, knowledgeable, pro-dirty-energy folks who have sat on their hands instead of rolling up their sleeves to get our dirty ship of state turned around in time. Hard to pull off the slow turn of a supertanker of state unless the pilots actually try.

   In the USA, the long squabble of making laws and regulations is well underway and is getting a huge push from the top. Here they languish supposedly “waiting to see what Americans do”. But it isn’t a “just add water for instant legislation” world. It takes time. Again, the Americans have already started the hard work and are well ahead of us.

   On a per-capita basis Americans have actually cut their emissions by almost 3% now since 1990. Our per capita emissions are 8% higher than 1990.  

   As a result the race the USA has left is to cut around one-sixth of their current emissions to get to our shared finish line.

   But we Canadian must cut almost one-quarter of our current emissions to get there.

   We Canadians are going to have to run almost 50% faster than Americans just to catch up. But first we need to actually turn around and start running in the right direction.

   As a Canadian I’m more than just embarrassed. I’m mad at the lack of planning and preparation and tools our federal government has provided to all of its citizens in this race. Harper’s government has not been responsibly pursuing parity with Americans or he would have been matching their efforts and doing the hard work to ensure we Canadians didn’t fall so far behind in our shared race.

   We Canadians, for our own welfare, all need to get much more actively engaged in the hard, but rewarding, work of cutting our national emissions. We are going to have to do soon. When Canadians get serious on cutting our dirty emissions we will once again give ourselves hope and pride in the ability of Canada to be a force of positive change in the world. And we will be much better off even in the short term compared to our current wrong-way path.

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